The Political Demography of Ethnicity, Nationalism and Religion

Thanks to the support of:

Book (submitted manuscript), Jack Goldstone, Eric Kaufmann and Monica Duffy Toft: Political Demography: identity, conflict and institutions (publisher: Boulder, CO: Paradigm Press, 2011)

Special Issue of Journal of Ethnopolitics on the Demography of Ethnic Conflict, coedited with Christian Leuprecht (planned for late 2010). Features my article on Demography and Dominant Ethnicity in Northern Ireland and also (with Richard Cincotta), article on Demography and Ethnic Conflict in Israel

Conference 2009: ‘Demography and Security: the Politics of Population Change’, Weatherhead Center, Harvard University, organized by Monica Toft, Jack Goldstone and myself, May 7-8, 2009.

Link: International Studies Association section on Political Demography

Conference 2006:

Political Demography: Ethnic, National and Religious Dimensions, September 29-30, 2006, London School of Economics (details below):

Plenary Speakers

Jack A. Goldstone Its All Political: Why Demography isn’t Just for Demographers Anymore

Jack Goldstone (PhD Harvard University) is Hazel Professor and Director of the Center for Global Policy at George Mason University, and a Scholar at the Mercatus Center. He is the author of Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (California 1981), and editor of The Encyclopaedia of Political Revolutions (Congressional Quarterly 1998).

Michael Hout : The Demographic Imperative in Social Change: Political Implications

The balance of fertility, mortality, and immigration fuels a population’s growth. If important groups are growing at different rates, then their relative sizes will change over time. This demographic imperative can have a direct effect, as in the growth of evangelical Protestants in the USA over the last thirty years. It can have second-order effects too. One example is the well-known case of Northern Europe’s greying welfare states. Entitlements tied to age succeed if age structures remain stable but can fail if the age structure shifts. Economic growth and performance respond to age structures too.

Michael Hout (PhD Indiana University) is professor at the University of California, Berkeley where he currently chairs the Graduate Group in Sociology and Demography and the Berkeley Population Center. He and Claude Fischer recently finished a book on twentieth-century social and cultural trends in the United States that exemplifies this approach; Century of Difference will be published by Russell Sage Foundation in Fall 2006. Another book, The Truth about Conservative Christians with Andrew Greeley, will be published in August 2006 by University of Chicago Press.

Monica Duffy Toft : Population Shifts and Civil War

Monica Duffy Toft (PhD University of Chicago) is Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Kennedy School and the Assistant Director of the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard. She was a research intern at the RAND Corporation and served in the U.S. Army in southern Germany as a Russian voice interceptor. She is the author of two book manuscripts, a monograph, The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and Territory, and an edited volume, The Fog of Peace: Strategic and Military Planning Under Uncertainty.

Conference Panel Speakers (with Presentations and Papers where available) by Theme:


Book of Abstracts I (alphabetised) – pdf

Book of Abstracts II (alphabetised) – Excel

Sutay Yavuz, Max Planck Institute, Rostock
Ethnic Differences in Fertility Transition in Turkey (presentation)

Turkey has reached advance stage of Demographic Transition. This study aims to investigate determinants of the differential fertility transition pattern of Turkish and Kurdish women in Turkey.

Valér Veres -Babes-Bolyai University Cluj
Differential Demographics in Transylvania: Ethnocultural or Economic Factors?

An analysis of differential changes in fertility and natural increase in Transylvania including the role of ethnicity and economic development on fertility patterns, measurement issues.

Ram B. Bhagat, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai
Hindu-Muslim Fertility Differentials in India

Hindu-Muslim differentials in fertility is no more than one child in India. It is not likely that Muslims will outnumber Hindus in foreseeable future.

Philip Verwimp, Institute of Social Studies, the Hague
Child Survival and Fertility of refugees in Rwanda (paper)

The paper researches the differential fertility history of refugee women and non-refugees in Rwanda. (Paper joint work with Jan Van Bavel, Free University of Brussels.)

Arvinda Meera-University of Tuebingen
Women’s autonomy and fertility: A comparison of tribal and non-tribal women in India

Tribal women have a lower status, lesser autonomy and higher fertility than non-tribal women in India.

Bandita Medhi, Arya Vidyapeeth College
Demographic Patterns And Impact On Education In Assam

There has been a drastic change in the demographic pattern of the State of Assam since 1901. The paper examines the factors affecting these changes and their impact on educational enrolment.

Apostol Apostolov and Petya Dankova, Varna University of Economics
Ethnicity and family planning & Labour Emigration (Bulgaria) (paper)

A discussion of the impact of socio-cultural, ethnic and religious factors on family planning and labour emigration processes, based on a representative empirical study

Harald Wilkoszewski, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research / LSE paper
Demographic change and the balance of power in Europe.

In this paper we examine the effect of differential population growth on the balance of power in the EU’s Council of Ministers.

Wolfgang Lutz and Vegard Skirbekk – IIASA (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis)
The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis: Forces that May Lead to Fewer Births in Europe (paper)

The paper’s hypothesis describes plausible self-reinforcing mechanisms that would result, if unchecked, in a continued decrease of the number of births in Europe.

Upala Barua , Cotton College, Assam, India
Cultural And Administrative Factors On Differential Fertility Rates in Assam, India (paper)

This is a study of the fertility status of two communities pursuing the same religion but migrated to the State at two distinctly different periods from two different locations.

Branislav Djurdjev, University of Novi Sad
Majorities And Minorities In Ex-Yugoslav Countries

The paper considers ethnic changes in the area of former Yugoslavia. In our days former majorities are stronger in their native countries and weaker in all other parts. Minorities tend to emigrate.

Ould Isselmou, Office National de la Statistique
Fertility Differentials : A Comparative Study (N & W Africa)

The study shows the level, trend and differential in fertility among North African and West African countries.

Elizabeth Leahy, Population Action International
The Shape of Things to Come: Population Age Structures and their Meanings

Description of the relationship between demography and political stability; analysis of connections between population age structure and risk of civil conflict in developing countries from 1970-2004.

Sarah Staveteig, University of California, Berkeley
Youthful Age Structure and Ethnic Conflict: Is there a Connection?

One cascading effect of population growth-age structure-is a predictor of civil war, but not of ethnic war. However, differential minority age structure appears to help predict ethnic conflict.

Christian Leuprecht, Royal Military College/Queen’s University, Canada
The demographic security dilemma

Henrik Urdal, Peace Research Institute, Oslo
Censuses Recording, Ethnicity and Increased Risk of Political Instability and Violence  paper

The paper addresses the relationship between publishing ethnicity data from censuses and political stability and violence.

Tamas Makany U. of Southhampton
An Agent-based Model of Crisis-Driven Migration and Ethno-Religious Conflict

An agent-based model simulates crisis-driven migration and ensuing ethno-religious conflict; generates migratory patterns based on local crisis, ethnic tension, demography and breadth of networks.

Richard Cincotta, National Intelligence Council (USA)
Does a Demographic Transition Promote a Democratic Transition? presentation

The authors propose to formulate and test a series of hypotheses that predict the increased likelihood of a drift toward democracy as an autocracy’s ethnic population age structures mature

Indra De Soysa, ISS/NTNU (Norway)
Dare to be Different! Ethnicity & Political Terror (paper)

This study will empirically assess the nexus between dissent and repression in ethnically fractionalized and exclusionary political environments.

Eliott Green, London School of Economics
Demographic Pressure and Ethnic Conflict in Contemporary Uganda (paper)

Uganda possesses both extreme ethnic diversity and a high rate of population growth. I argue here that the combination of these factors means that Uganda will see more ethnic conflict in the future.

Ricardo Neupert, UN Population Program & Silvino Lopes, NSD Timor L’Este
The demographic component of the east Timorese crisis (paper)

This study analyses the demographic determinants of the recent crisis in East Timor, which has the form a violent rivalry between the population of the Eastern and Western regions of the country.

Aitalina Azarova, Central European University
Consequences of the change of dominant ethnic group in the Sakha Republic (Russian Federation) (paper)

Discussion population growth of the Sakha and Russian people in one Russian region. Changing balance of social and political standing has affected the degree of ethnic tension

Mitch Young, London School of Economics
Property Law, Ethnic Fractionalisation and Return Migration in Post-war Bosnia

An analysis of factors affecting the return of refugees and displaced persons to pre-war property holdings in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Renu Bhagat, The New School for Social Research, New York
Religion, Race and Caste: Comparing Affirmative Action in the India and the United States

This paper will examine the role of the state in identity construction in India and the United States,through Affirmative action plans.

Ugur Ungor, University of Amsterdam
Demographic engineering in the 20th century: a comparative historical-sociological approach (presentation)

Demographic engineering is the range of state-sponsored policies to maintain maximum homogeneity. This comparative paper outlines various episodes of demographic engineering in the twentieth century.

Tatyana Kotzeva, Center for Population Studies, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Depopulation in Bulgaria in the Times of Transition: Political and Scientific Visions

The presentation will analyse different interpretations and visions of Bulgaria’s depopulation since the early 1990s, mainly nationalistic visions and more moderate and politically neutral views.

Cynthia Buckley, The University of Michigan
Russia Counts: The Social Construction of the 2002 Census

This paper examines the delays, debates and disagreements associated with the 2002 census of the Russian Federation.

Abby Day, Lancaster University
Believing in Belonging: a qualitative analysis of being Christian for the 2001 census (presentation)

Seventy-two per cent of respondents to the UK 2001 census affiliated to Christianity. The paper explains explorer this data via an intergenerational qualitative research project.

Hannah Cameron, Brussels School of International Studies
Transnational Marriage between Britain and the Indian Sub-continent: an evaluation of the demographic impact (paper)

The proposed paper will consider the demographic impact of transnational marriage, with reference to marriage between British born Asians and citizens of the Indian subcontinent.

Vegard Skirbekk & Katrin Fliegenschnee IIASA (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis)
New Times, Old Beliefs: Projecting the Future Size of Religions in Austria (paper)

The paper presents the results of demographic projections for Austria for the next half century.

Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London

The End of Secularisation in the West? (presentation paper)

An analysis of differential fertility and secularisation patterns points to a growing long-term religious percentage of the west European  population

David Voas, University of Manchester
The Future of Christianity in Europe (presentation)

European countries have large subpopulations of people who are neither particularly religious nor decidedly unreligious. Despite its current size and strength this group is destined to dwindle.

Caroline Berghammer & Dimiter Philipov Vienna Institute of Demography
Religiosity and Demographic Events: a Comparative Study of European Countries (presentation)

We study the association between religiosity and young adults’ life-course events in 17 European countries based on 3 theoretical aspects. Theoretical background and empirical results are discussed.

Jon Anson & Ofra Anson, Ben Gurion University of the Negev
Religion, Nationalism and Demography: False Consciousness, Real Consequences (paper)

Religion and nationalism are both social phenomena reflecting in consciousness what differential fertility reflects in practice: (class) struggles over access to socially created resources.

Liam Kennedy, Queen’s University Belfast
Did Industrialisation Matter? Ethno-National Conflict in Ulster

Uneven industrialisation in Ireland shaped the conflict of nationality in Ireland but the vital link was through demography.

Amy Bailey, University of Washington
Fertility and Revolution: How Does Political Change Influence Reproductive Behaviour? (paper)

I use historical data to link revolution, individualistic ideology and fertility decline. Results indicate revolutions, not institutional political structures, predict the onset of fertility decline.

Margitta Maetzke, Georg August University Goettingen
Production, War, and Reproduction: State Interests in the Welfare State across Time

Implicit demographic motives in Western welfare policy: Resource-dependent states view their populations as taxpayers, workers, soldiers, and mothers. Social policies reflect this resource interest.

John Garcia, University of Arizona
Global citizenship among Latino immigrants in the United States (paper)

Examination of global citizenship among Latino immigrants in the United States; interactions, orientations,and attachments in country of origin and residence influencing civic engagement.

Ross Bond, University of Edinburgh
Scottish graduate migration: barriers to belonging? (presentation)
Scottish graduate migration: barriers to belonging? (paper)

Describes recent research on graduate migration in Scotland within a political context in which increased immigration to Scotland (especially of highly skilled individuals) is encouraged.

Ludi Simpson, University of Manchester
Segregation and integration in the UK (presentation)

Black and Asian populations are dispersing within the UK. But population growth enlarges clusters of minorities, identified negatively in media and political discourse. A review of the evidence.

Anwar Muhammad, University of Bergen
From Exclusion to Inclusion: the Pakistani Community in Norway (presentation)

This paper instead of seeing Pakistani immigrants precarious situation in simplified cultural terms, it presents the situation from political, social and demographic discourses.

Kiran Bhairannavar, University of Delhi
Migration, identity and conflict: the politico-demographic landscape of Assam state, India

Massive population influx in Assam has permanently changed its demographic landscape leading to conflicts and emergence of Identity movements having far reaching consequences.

Andriy Ushakov, Kharkiv National University of Economics
International co-ordination of illegal migration control: Ukrainian context

Migration in Ukraine, formerly a socio-cultural phenomenon, is now becoming an ethnic and national issue.

Scott Greer, University of Michigan
Migration in a Stateless Nation: Catalans and ‘Immigrants’ in the Democratic Transition

National political entrepreneurs’ response to immigration by a different ethnic group, both in terms of organisational and ideological terms, based on a case study of 1970s Catalonia.

Eduard Rodriguez-Martin, Ecole des hautes etudes en sciences sociales (EHESS)
The New ‘Fear of the Moor’: Ethnicisation of the Demographic Discourse in Melilla, Spain

Since the census of the Muslim population of Melilla in 1986, demographic data has been used by Christian and Muslim communities to maintain a social stratification based on ethnical criteria.

Christian Autengruber, Andrassy University, Budapest, Hungary
Ethnic demography and party policy: voter alignment in Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia (presentation)

Philip Howe, Adrian College, Michigan
Voting Across Ethnic Lines in Late Imperial Austria (paper)
Voting Across Ethnic Lines in Late Imperial Austria (presentation)

A comparison of district- and sub-district-level data over time reveals a surprisingly high degree of voting across ethnic lines in Late Imperial Austrian elections.

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