Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?:
The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

A Study in Religion, Demography and Politics

Dr. Eric P. Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London, UK e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

Summary

This project argues that the population of the developed world will become increasingly religious and conservative in the long-term, reversing decades – even centuries – of liberal secularisation. There will be no mass conversions or sudden shifts in the cultural mood. Instead, religiosity will spread largelythrough demographic advantage in a world where secular religions and sources of secular enchantment have exhausted themselves.

Books

Findings available in a new book, Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth (London: Profile Books, 25 March 2010). Hear a podcast interview with George Miller of Blackwell’s on the book. See youtube video of Eric’s  talk at the RSA on April 15

Upcoming edited book: Political Demography: identity, conflict and institutions, edited by J. A. Goldstone, Eric Kaufmann and Monica Duffy Toft. (Boulder, CO: Paradigm, 2010), forthcoming

Latest Articles and News

• I will be speaking on 1-3 October at the Festival of Dangerous Ideas, Sydney Opera House, Australia
• My review of Doug Saunders’ ‘Arrival City: How the Largest Migration in History is Reshaping Our World’ will appear in Literary Review in September
• August 2010: Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), ‘Sunday Nights’ programme with John Cleary, featuring the book and some of my (!!) musical selections
• I review Pascal Bruckner’s excellent book, ‘Tyranny of Guilt’, in the August issue of Prospect magazine
• See my recent piece for the Irish Times on the book, ‘Population boom in third world provides a boost for religions’, 20 July
• 8 July 2010 – my article on this year’s Twelfth marches, ‘Why Orangemen must put best foot forward’, Belfast Telegraph
• 25 June – Review of the book at Spiked Online (Tim Black) - ‘The barbarians are copulating at the gates’
• 22 June – Review of the book in Taki’s Magazine (John Derbyshire) - ‘Religious Extremists Will Inherit the Earth’

Reviews of the Book

• New Humanist (cover story by Caspar Melville), ‘Battle of the Babies‘, March/April issue.
  Chosen as an ‘article of note’ in Arts and Letters Daily, early April.
• 15 March – Daily Telegraph (Ed West) – ‘Atheism is doomed: the contraceptive Pill is secularism’s cyanide tablet‘
• 21 March – Sunday Times (Dominic Lawson), ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth‘
• 22-28 March Big Issue Scotland (cover story), ‘God’s Comeback‘
• 31 March – London Metro (Robert Murphy), ‘Shall The Religious Inherit The Earth?: Eric Kaufmann may have the answer‘
• 4 April – Financial Times (John Lloyd), ‘Abraham’s Children on the March‘
• April – Literary Review (Douglas Murray), ‘We’re All Doomed‘
• 4 April – Theos (Nick Spencer) – ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth‘
• 9 April – Independent (Ziauddin Sardar) – ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth‘
• 17 April – Toronto Globe and Mail (Doug Saunders) – ‘Swamped by Religion‘
• 18 April – Morning Star (Michael Boncza) – ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth‘
• 2 May - Observer (Kenan Malik) - ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth’
• 5 May - Epiphenom (Tom Rees) - ‘Shall the Fundamentalists Inherit the Earth’
• 16 May - Sunday Star Times, New Zealand, (Mark Broatch) - ‘Revenge of the Cradle’
• 18 June - Catholic Herald (Ed West) - ‘The future belongs to the children of believers’
• 22 June – Taki’s Magazine (John Derbyshire) - ‘Religious Extremists Will Inherit the Earth’
• 25 June - Spiked Online (Tim Black) - ‘The barbarians are copulating at the gates’

Interviews, Podcasts, Articles of Mine, and Commentary on the Book

• ‘Why Religion Will Make a Comeback’ (David Quinn), Iona Institute, 15 June
• ‘The future of Right-wing politics – ‘Libertarian Islamophobes’ or inter-faith gay-bashers?’ (Ed West), Telegraph, 9 June
• ‘Why the 21st century will be religious’ (Ed West), Catholic Herald, 4 June
• ‘Credo: It takes faith to have a child, faith in mankind’s purpose’, (Rabbi Jonathan Sacks), Times, 21 May
• ‘Acts of God’, Standpoint (Daniel Johnson), May issue
• ‘David Quinn: It is the religious who shall inherit the earth‘, (David Quinn), Irish Independent, 30 April
• ‘I pity the Catholics who believed in their leaders’, (Catherine Nixey), Times, 23 April
• ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth‘, Kenan Malik.com, 9 April
• ‘Europe’s Muslim Future‘, Eric Kaufmann, Prospect, April
• Mercator.net (interview), April
• Belief.net (Rod Dreher) – ‘The (very) Religious Shall Inherit the Earth‘, 2 April
• ‘Mormons: ‘We don’t want Bible bashers‘ (Alice Fishburn and Hattie Garlick), Sunday Times, 1 April
• ‘Rise of the Fundamentalists‘, Slugger O’ Toole, 22 March
• Friendly Atheist (interview), Hemant Mehta, 19 March
• 4 March 2010, 7pm Royal National Hotel, Bedford Way, London: Appearance at Jewish Book Week, on panel with Dominique Moisi and John Kampfner on panel on ‘Threats to our Democracy’. Details at:  http://www.jewishbookweek.com/2010/democracy-at-risk.php [podcast of debate here]
• ‘17 Oct, 2009: “Only an atheist can be a good Christian; only a Christian can be a good atheist”, Verso Book Launch Debate on Ernst Bloch’s Atheism in Christianity, Saturday 17th October 2009, 3pm – 5pm, Room B35, Birkbeck College  London (podcasted event)

Upcoming Appearances

• 1-3 October, Festival of Dangerous Ideas, Sydney Opera House, Australia
• 11 July – 11 am - South Place Ethical Society, Conway Hall, 25 Red Lion Square London
• 10 June – 8- Iona Institute, Dublin
• 6 May- 3pm - ICSR (International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation), King’s College, University of London
• 5 May – 630 pm - Reading Public Library
• 15 April: Debate on the book with Dominic Lawson of The Sunday Times at RSA, London, 6 pm. Moderated by Laurie Taylor and co-sponsored by New Humanist magazine
• 14 April, 4 pm: Afternoon Show with Sean Moncreiff, RTE Radio (Ireland)
• 12 April: BBC World Service ‘Politics UK’. Debate with Lord Robert Skidelsky and Mehdi Hasan, political editor, New Statesman, on immigration in the UK and Europe
• 7 April, 4-430 pm : Appearance on BBC Radio 4 ‘Thinking Allowed‘ with Tariq Ramadan and Rebecca Goldstein
• 1 April, 11-12 am: Today Show with Pat Kenny, RTE (Ireland) Radio 1. Hear interview podcast.
• 29 March: BBC World Service, World Update, 11-12 AM
• 28 March: BBC Radio Scotland (religious affairs programme)
• Book Launch &  reception: 25 March 2010, room 403, 6pm, Birkbeck College, Malet Street, London

Recent:

• ‘Europe’s Muslim Future‘, Eric Kaufmann, Prospect, April
• 10-13 March 2010: ‘Sacralization by Stealth?: The Religious Consequences of Low Fertility in Europe’, for conference on “Causes, Consequences & Responses to Low Fertility,” hosted by the Social Trends Institute, Barcelona
• 4 March 2010, 7pm Royal National Hotel, Bedford Way, London: Appearance at Jewish Book Week, on panel with Dominique Moisi and John Kampfner on panel on ‘Threats to our Democracy’. Details at: http://www.jewishbookweek.com/2010/democracy-at-risk.php
• 17 October 2009: ‘Only an atheist can be a good Christian; only a Christian can be a good atheist’, Debate on Ernst Bloch’s Atheism in Christianity, Birkbeck Institute for the Humanities, London (podcasted event)

Working Papers, Media & Articles

Previous Events/Presentations

Media (Own Articles and Others’ Coverage of My Research):

• ‘A Nightmare for Richard Dawkins: statistics show that atheists are a dying breed’, Ed West, Daily Telegraph (UK), 18 September 2009
• ‘The Changing Face of Israel‘ (co-authored with R. Cincotta), Foreign Policy (web exclusive), June 2009
• ‘The Global War for Souls’, a review of John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge, ‘God is Back’, Prospect, June 2009
• Anthony Gottlieb, ‘Faith Equals Fertility’, Intelligent Life (Economist), Winter 2008
• Commentary on my November 2006 Prospect/Newsweek article, ‘Breeding for God’ at Richard Dawkins.net (2008)
• Review of Philip Jenkins’ God’s Continent, Prospect, November 2007
• ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth’, Jewish Quarterly, Autumn 2007
• Ross Douthat, ‘The Crisis of Faith‘, Atlantic Monthly, July/August 2007
• ‘Faith’s Comeback’, Newsweek, 7-13 November 2006
• ‘Breeding for God’, Prospect, November 2006 issue
• ‘Shifting Demography’, BBC Radio 4 ‘Thinking Allowed’, 4 October 2006

Project Notes

• Former ESRC-Funded Project within Understanding Population Trends and Processes: A Secondary Data Analysis Initiative (UPTAP) Programme, 2005-6. Link to Original UPTAP programme specification
• Read full summary Read/ Download Full Proposal
• Formerly a component of the Initiative on Religion in International Affairs , Belfer Center for Science in International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2008-9

Resources:

• Eric Kaufmann’s Political Demography Resource
• Reading List of Relevant Articles
• Channel 4 film: The Battle for Israel’s Soul

Links:

• Michael Blume’s website on religion and reproduction
• Evolutionary Religious Studies (David Sloan Wilson’s site)
• Evolution of Religion (Richard Sosis’ site)
• Sci-Log: the Biology of Religion
• Philip Longman’s website
• Institute for Studies of Religion (ISR) at Baylor University
• Richard Dawkins.net

Subpages:

• Previous Events/Presentations
• Reading List of Relevant Articles
• Working Papers, Media & Articles