Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?:
The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

A Study in Religion, Demography and Politics

Dr. Eric P. Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London, UK

Summary

This project argues that the population of the developed world will become increasingly religious and conservative in the long-term, reversing decades – even centuries – of liberal secularisation. There will be no mass conversions or sudden shifts in the cultural mood. Instead, religiosity will spread largelythrough demographic advantage in a world where secular religions and sources of secular enchantment have exhausted themselves.

Books

Findings available in Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth (London: Profile Books, 2010, May 2011 in USA). See video of Eric’s speech at the Festival of Dangerous Ideas in Sydney, Australia in October. Hear a podcast interview with George Miller of Blackwell’s on the book; See youtube video of Eric’s  talk at the RSA on April 15; Hear a podcast interview with John Cleary of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation ‘Sunday Nights’on the book (September 5).

Also see Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics, edited by J. A. Goldstone, Eric Kaufmann and Monica Duffy Toft. (Boulder, CO: Paradigm, 2011), forthcoming

Latest Articles, Talks and News

• Mention in Allan Carlson, ‘Demography, Destiny and New Foreign Policy Challenges for the 21st Century,’ Foreign Policy Research Institute, Dec. 12, Philadelphia, PA
• See my recent review, ‘Peace in our Time’, of Steven Pinker’s new book on the decline of violence in human history, ‘The Better Angels of our Nature’, Literary Review, December.
• My Op-Ed on Malthusians, Cornucopians and 7 billion people: ‘Rural and religious fuel the world’s population boom,’ Providence Journal, Nov.6, 2011
• Academic journal article, with Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon, ‘American political affiliation, 2003–43: A cohort component projection,’ Population Studies, published online Nov. 5
• Mention in Nigel Barber, ‘ When Will Atheism Prevail Over Religion?,’ Huffington Post, Nov.3, 2011
• ‘Religious revival: Western societies are being dramatically reshaped by the strong birth rate of religious people,‘ Bright Blue, Autumn 2011, p. 37
• Interviewed as part of Alan Greenblatt, ‘As Europe Ages, Its Economies Look Vulnerable,‘ NPR.org, September 24
• Interview on Clay Naff’s radio show, ‘Science Odyssey: Demography Shows How Religion Drives Population Growth’, September 10
• Academic journal article, ‘Primordialists and Constructionists: A typology of theories of religion’, September (prepublication version)
• Academic journal article, with Anne Goujon and Vegard Skirbekk, ‘The End of Secularization in Europe?: A Socio-Demographic Perspective,’ Sociology of Religion, published online August 8
• ‘Demography and the Future of Religion: Eric Kaufmann’s Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?’, Vox Nova, August 3
• Discussion in Sharperiron.org, June 12, 2011
• Discussion in Blaze.com, June 11, 2011
• Television Interview on Fox News Live, June 10, 2011
• Discussion of my (and colleagues Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon) predictions for US religion in 2043 in David Briggs, ARDA ‘Ahead of the Trend’ and Huffington Post, May 25
• ‘Book Review: Between Religion and Politics’, Muhammad Khan, Muslim News, May 27, 2011
• Professor: the Religious Population will inherit the earth, Hal Boyd, Deseret News, May 24, 2011
• Review of the book by Frank Ellis, Quarterly Review, Spring 2011
• May 20, 2011, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, 2:30 pm
• May 18, 2011, New America Foundation, Washington, DC, 12 pm
• May 16, 2011, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, DC, 3 pm overview clip Arab spring clip photos on flickr
• May - Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth launches in USA
• May 2011 – review of book by Allan Carlson in The Family in America, Winter issue
• Along with colleagues at IIASA, I helped write the Europe section of the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life ‘The Future of the Global Muslim Population’ report, which was widely cited in the press
• Note my question to Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg at the PSA/Hansard Debate (minute 30:20). Did he answer it well? In part. See minute 36: 50 for his response.
• 26 December, Andy Walton, Sunday Breakfast Show, Premier Christian Radio, 8:00 am.
• ‘The Future of Religion’, Studies, December

Reviews of the Book

• 15 March 2010 – Daily Telegraph (Ed West) – ‘Atheism is doomed: the contraceptive Pill is secularism’s cyanide tablet‘
• 21 March – Sunday Times (Dominic Lawson), ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth‘
• 22-28 March Big Issue Scotland (cover story), ‘God’s Comeback‘
• 31 March – London Metro (Robert Murphy), ‘Shall The Religious Inherit The Earth?: Eric Kaufmann may have the answer‘
• New Humanist (cover story by Caspar Melville), ‘Battle of the Babies‘, March/April 2010 issue.
  Chosen as an ‘article of note’ in Arts and Letters Daily, early April.
• 4 April – Financial Times (John Lloyd), ‘Abraham’s Children on the March‘
• April – Literary Review (Douglas Murray), ‘We’re All Doomed‘
• 4 April – Theos (Nick Spencer) – ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth‘
• 9 April – Independent (Ziauddin Sardar) – ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth‘
• 17 April – Toronto Globe and Mail (Doug Saunders) – ‘Swamped by Religion‘
• 18 April – Morning Star (Michael Boncza) – ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth‘
• 2 May - Observer (Kenan Malik) - ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth’
• 5 May - Epiphenom (Tom Rees) - ‘Shall the Fundamentalists Inherit the Earth’
• 16 May - Sunday Star Times, New Zealand, (Mark Broatch) - ‘Revenge of the Cradle’
• 18 June - Catholic Herald (Ed West) - ‘The future belongs to the children of believers’
• 22 June – Taki’s Magazine (John Derbyshire) - ‘Religious Extremists Will Inherit the Earth’
• 25 June - Spiked Online (Tim Black) - ‘The barbarians are copulating at the gates’
• 2 October, Miriam Cosic,’Religious baby boom primed to send shock waves through secular world’, The Australian
• 21 October, Razib Khan, ‘The Wheel of History turns to the gods’, Discovery Magazine
• Mention of book in ‘Survival of the Godliest: Does strong religious belief provide an evolutionary advantage?’, Philip Longman, Big Questions Online, 12 November
• 22 December – Grace Davie, ‘Religion’s Built-in Baby Boom?’, Church Times
• May 2011 - review of book by Allan Carlson in The Family in America, Winter issue
• Professor: the Religious Population will inherit the earth, Hal Boyd, Deseret News, May 24, 2011
• Review of the book by Frank Ellis, Quarterly Review, Spring 2011
• ‘Book Review: Between Religion and Politics’, Muhammad Khan, Muslim News, May 27, 2011

Interviews, Podcasts, Articles of Mine, and Commentary on the Book

• Wrong, Rogue and Booklog
• Kitman.tv, May 20, 2011
• Kitchendaily, May 19
• Superstition and Atheism blog, May 17, 2011
• Homeschoolingallabout.com, May 4
• God’sownparty, Dec 20
• Survival of the Godliest: Does strong religious belief provide an evolutionary advantage?’, Philip Longman, Big Questions Online, 12 November
• The West Should Stop Panicking’ (Aron Paul), The Australian, 24 September
• ‘Why Religion Will Make a Comeback’ (David Quinn), Iona Institute, 15 June
• ‘The future of Right-wing politics – ‘Libertarian Islamophobes’ or inter-faith gay-bashers?’ (Ed West), Telegraph, 9 June
• ‘Why the 21st century will be religious’ (Ed West), Catholic Herald, 4 June
• ‘Credo: It takes faith to have a child, faith in mankind’s purpose’, (Rabbi Jonathan Sacks), Times, 21 May
• ‘Acts of God’, Standpoint (Daniel Johnson), May issue
• ‘David Quinn: It is the religious who shall inherit the earth‘, (David Quinn), Irish Independent, 30 April
• ‘I pity the Catholics who believed in their leaders’, (Catherine Nixey), Times, 23 April
• ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth‘, Kenan Malik.com, 9 April
• ‘Europe’s Muslim Future‘, Eric Kaufmann, Prospect, April
• Mercator.net (interview), April
• Belief.net (Rod Dreher) – ‘The (very) Religious Shall Inherit the Earth‘, 2 April
• ‘Mormons: ‘We don’t want Bible bashers‘ (Alice Fishburn and Hattie Garlick), Sunday Times, 1 April
• ‘Rise of the Fundamentalists‘, Slugger O’ Toole, 22 March
• Friendly Atheist (interview), Hemant Mehta, 19 March
• 4 March 2010, 7pm Royal National Hotel, Bedford Way, London: Appearance at Jewish Book Week, on panel with Dominique Moisi and John Kampfner on panel on ‘Threats to our Democracy’. Details at:  http://www.jewishbookweek.com/2010/democracy-at-risk.php [podcast of debate here]
• ‘17 Oct, 2009: “Only an atheist can be a good Christian; only a Christian can be a good atheist”, Verso Book Launch Debate on Ernst Bloch’s Atheism in Christianity, Saturday 17th October 2009, 3pm – 5pm, Room B35, Birkbeck College  London (podcasted event)

Past Appearances

• 1 December, at Open Discussions, Abrar House, 45 Crawford Place, London W1H 4LP
• 17 November, LSE Forum on Religion, Cañada Blanch room, London School of Economics, 5:30-7 pm
• 21 October, Razib Khan, ‘The Wheel of History turns to the gods’, Discovery Magazine
• 7 October, 6:30 pm – appearing on Festival of Ideas Satellite panel, Papal plots, burqa bans: what does it mean to be secular today? , Foyle’s Bookshop, 113-119 Charing Cross Road London WC2H 0EB
• 3 October, 11 AM at the Festival of Dangerous Ideas, Sydney Opera House
• 2 October, Miriam Cosic, ‘Religious baby boom primed to send shock waves through secular world’, The Australian
• Hear me on Philip Adams Late Night live, ABC radio, Wednesday 29 September, in Sydney, Australia
• Hear interview on Sunday Night Safran, Triple J radio, Sydney, Australia
• See my Op-Ed, ‘Out of mouths of babes – religious will rise as secular birth rates fall‘, Sydney Morning Herald, September 20, 2010
• My review of Doug Saunders’ ‘Arrival City: How the Largest Migration in History is Reshaping Our World’ was published in Literary Review in September
• I review Pascal Bruckner’s excellent book, ‘Tyranny of Guilt’, in the August issue of Prospect magazine
• See my recent piece for the Irish Times on the book, ‘Population boom in third world provides a boost for religions’, 20 July
• 8 July 2010 – my article on this year’s Twelfth marches, ‘Why Orangemen must put best foot forward’, Belfast Telegraph
• Article, with Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon, ‘Secularism, Fundamentalism, or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043‘, Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, June, pages 293–310
• 11 July – 11 am - South Place Ethical Society, Conway Hall, 25 Red Lion Square London
• 10 June – 8- Iona Institute, Dublin
• 6 May- 3pm - ICSR (International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation), King’s College, University of London
• 5 May – 630 pm - Reading Public Library
• 15 April: Debate on the book with Dominic Lawson of The Sunday Times at RSA, London, 6 pm. Moderated by Laurie Taylor and co-sponsored by New Humanist magazine
• 14 April, 4 pm: Afternoon Show with Sean Moncreiff, RTE Radio (Ireland)
• 12 April: BBC World Service ‘Politics UK’. Debate with Lord Robert Skidelsky and Mehdi Hasan, political editor, New Statesman, on immigration in the UK and Europe
• 7 April, 4-430 pm : Appearance on BBC Radio 4 ‘Thinking Allowed‘ with Tariq Ramadan and Rebecca Goldstein
• 1 April, 11-12 am: Today Show with Pat Kenny, RTE (Ireland) Radio 1. Hear interview podcast.
• 29 March: BBC World Service, World Update, 11-12 AM
• 28 March: BBC Radio Scotland (religious affairs programme)
• Book Launch &  reception: 25 March 2010, room 403, 6pm, Birkbeck College, Malet Street, London
• 10-13 March 2010: ‘Sacralization by Stealth?: The Religious Consequences of Low Fertility in Europe’, for conference on “Causes, Consequences & Responses to Low Fertility,” hosted by the Social Trends Institute, Barcelona
• 4 March 2010, 7pm Royal National Hotel, Bedford Way, London: Appearance at Jewish Book Week, on panel with Dominique Moisi and John Kampfner on panel on ‘Threats to our Democracy’. Details at: http://www.jewishbookweek.com/2010/democracy-at-risk.php
• 17 October 2009: ‘Only an atheist can be a good Christian; only a Christian can be a good atheist’, Debate on Ernst Bloch’s Atheism in Christianity, Birkbeck Institute for the Humanities, London (podcasted event)

Working Papers, Media & Articles

Previous Events/Presentations

Older Coverage (Own Articles and Related Press):

• ‘A Nightmare for Richard Dawkins: statistics show that atheists are a dying breed’, Ed West, Daily Telegraph (UK), 18 September 2009
• ‘The Changing Face of Israel‘ (co-authored with R. Cincotta), Foreign Policy (web exclusive), June 2009
• ‘The Global War for Souls’, a review of John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge, ‘God is Back’, Prospect, June 2009
• Anthony Gottlieb, ‘Faith Equals Fertility’, Intelligent Life (Economist), Winter 2008
• Commentary on my November 2006 Prospect/Newsweek article, ‘Breeding for God’ at Richard Dawkins.net (2008)
• Review of Philip Jenkins’ God’s Continent, Prospect, November 2007
• ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth’, Jewish Quarterly, Autumn 2007
• Ross Douthat, ‘The Crisis of Faith‘, Atlantic Monthly, July/August 2007
• ‘Faith’s Comeback’, Newsweek, 7-13 November 2006
• ‘Breeding for God’, Prospect, November 2006 issue
• ‘Shifting Demography’, BBC Radio 4 ‘Thinking Allowed’, 4 October 2006

Project Notes

• Former ESRC-Funded Project within Understanding Population Trends and Processes: A Secondary Data Analysis Initiative (UPTAP) Programme, 2005-6. Link to Original UPTAP programme specification
• Read full summary Read/ Download Full Proposal
• Formerly a component of the Initiative on Religion in International Affairs , Belfer Center for Science in International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2008-9

Resources:

• Eric Kaufmann’s Political Demography Resource
• Reading List of Relevant Articles
• Channel 4 film: The Battle for Israel’s Soul

Links:

• Michael Blume’s website on religion and reproduction
• Evolutionary Religious Studies (David Sloan Wilson’s site)
• Evolution of Religion (Richard Sosis’ site)
• Sci-Log: the Biology of Religion
• Philip Longman’s website
• Institute for Studies of Religion (ISR) at Baylor University
• Richard Dawkins.net

Subpages:

• Previous Events/Presentations
• Reading List of Relevant Articles
• Working Papers, Media & Articles