A Dying Creed

Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

A Study in Religion, Demography and Politics

Dr. Eric P. Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London, UK
e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

Former ESRC-Funded Project within Understanding Population Trends and Processes: A Secondary Data Analysis Initiative (UPTAP) Programme

Currently part of Initiative on Religion in International Affairs , Belfer Center for Science in International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

Summary

This research project tests the thesis that the population of the developed world will become increasingly religious and conservative in the long-term , reversing decades - even centuries - of liberal secularisation. There will be no mass conversions or sudden shifts in the cultural mood. Instead , religiosity will spread largely through demographic advantage in a world where secular religions and sources of enchantment have exhausted themselves.

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Working Papers, Media & Articles:

Kaufmann, Eric, Anne Goujon and Vegard Skirbekk, 'The Next American Voter: the Political Demography of American Partisanship', working paper [abstract] [paper] [figures]. Submitted to American Political Science Review [latest version will be available pending decision]

Skirbekk, Vegard, Anne Goujon and Eric Kaufmann, ‘Secularism, Fundamentalism or Catholicism: the Religious Composition of the United States to 2043’ (older version). Latest version submitted to Social Forces [latest version will be available pending decision]

'Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim World' and 'Demographic Radicalization?: The Religiosity-Fertility Nexus and Politics', International Studies Association, New York, February 18, 2009

My research mentioned in Anthony Gottlieb's article, 'Faith Equals Fertility', Intelligent Life (Economist), Winter 2008

‘A 'Fear of Being Swamped': Why Modernity Leads to Ethno-Demographic Conflict’, American Political Science Association, Boston, August 28-31, 2008

'Eurabia?: the Foreign Policy Implications of West Europe's Religious Composition in 2025 and Beyond', paper for panel on "The Global Demographic Landscape in 2025: Implications for International Relations Analysis", International Studies Association, San Francisco

'Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim World', paper prepared for 2008 European Population Conference, Barcelona, July 9-12, 2008

'Human Development and the Demography of Secularisation in Global Perspective', Interdisciplinary Journal of Research on Religion, Volume 4: 2008 - draft version (final version can be downloaded here) abstract figures tables appendix

Review of Philip Jenkins' God's Continent, in Prospect, November 2007

'Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth', Jewish Quarterly, Autumn 2007

'Religion and Politics: The Demographic Imperative', for panel on 'Religion & International Order', American Political Science Association (APSA), Chicago, Aug 30- Sept 2, 2007 [paper] [tables] [presentation]

'Sacralisation by Stealth: Demography, Religion and Politics in Europe', JPR (Institute for Jewish Policy Research) pamphlet, London, July 4 2007

'Faith's Comeback?: The Demographic Revival of Religion in Europe', Un Nuovo Umanesimo per L'Europa, University of San Pio V, Basilica de San Giovanni in Laterano, Rome, Italy, 22 June [abstract] [paper] [tables] [graphs]

' A Dying Creed?: The demographic contradictions of liberal capitalism', ESRC UPTAP programme briefing paper, March 2007. Also available at: <http://www.uptap.net>

'Religiosity, Ideology and Voting in Western Europe, 1981, 1990', research note

'The End of Secularisation in Europe?: A Demographic Perspective', [do not cite without permission] article tables article figures

'Faith's Comeback', Newsweek, 7-13 November 2006

'Breeding for God', Prospect, November 2006 issue

'Shifting Demography', BBC Radio 4 'Thinking Allowed', 4 October 2006

'De-secularisation?: Religiosity and fertility in Western Europe' [working paper]

Upcoming and Previous Events/Presentations:

'Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim World' International Studies Association, New York, February 18, 2009

'Demographic Radicalization?: The Religiosity-Fertility Nexus and Politics', International Studies Association, New York, February 18, 2009

'Religious Fundamentalism as the End of History?: The Political Demography of the Abrahamic Faiths’, Belfer Center, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, International Security Program Seminar, February 5, 2009

'Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth’, Department of History, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, January 28, 2009

‘Secularism, Fundamentalism or Catholicism: the Religious Composition of the United States to 2043’, American Political Science Association, Boston, August 28-31, 2008 [click on link above to download poster]

Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim World, 2008 European Population Conference, Barcelona, July 9-12, 2008

'Eurabia?: the Foreign Policy Implications of West Europe's Religious Composition in 2025 and Beyond', for panel on "The Global Demographic Landscape in 2025: Implications for International Relations Analysis", International Studies Association, San Francisco

'Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography, Religion and Radicalization', for "Policing, Justice and Security in a Diverse Canada: Building an Empirical Evidence Base", Government of Canada, February 25 & 26, 2008 Hampton Inn Ottawa & Conference Centre

Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State/National Intelligence Council, 'National Intelligence Council and Intelligence Community Study Group on the Middle East 2025', Meridian International Center, Washington, February 21-22, 2008

Chairing and Discussant on panel on: 'Immigration and Fertility: The Political Demography of Ethnic, Religious and National Conflict', American Political Science Association (APSA), Chicago, Aug 30- Sept 2, 2007 [ panel description ]

'Sacralisation by Stealth: Demography, Religion and Politics in Europe', JPR (Institute for Jewish Policy Research) London, July 4 2007

'Faith's Comeback?: The Demographic Revival of Religion in Europe', Un Nuovo Umanesimo per L'Europa, University of San Pio V, Basilica de San Giovanni in Laterano, Rome, Italy, 22 June presentation

'The Return of Religion in Western Europe?: Demography and Politics', UPTAP Meetings, University of Leeds, 21-23 March

26 February 2007 - Discussant on live webcast with Jack Goldstone, 'Flash Points and Tipping Points: Security Implications of Global Population Changes, 2005-2025', Wilson Center for International Scholars, Washington, DC link to video webcast clip

'The End of Secularisation in Europe?', Birkbeck College Staff Seminar, 23 November

'The End of Secularisation in Europe?', London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 23 Oct 2006

'Political Demography: Ethnic, National and Religious Dimensions', 29-30 September 2006, London School of Economics'. Plenary Speakers: Jack Goldstone - George Mason University; Michael Hout - University of California Berkeley; Monica Duffy Toft - Harvard University - See the conference 'Political Demography Resource Page': download email addresses, abstracts, presentations and papers

'De-secularisation?: Religiosity, fertility and politics', British Society of Population Studies, University of Southampton, 18-20 September, 2006

'The Religious Shall Inherit the Earth?: De-Secularisation and the Demographic Imperative', American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, August 31, 2006

'Demographics and Politics: Religious and Ethnic Dimensions', panel at American Political Science Association (APSA) meetings, Philadelphia, August 31, 2006.

Religion and Demographic Behaviour, session 66 at European Population Conference, Liverpool, 21-24 June 2006

'Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: the political implications of the second demographic transition', European Population Conference, Liverpool, 21-24 June 2006

‘The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism: Rethinking Daniel Bell's Theory’, Libertarian Hawks or Cultural Communitarians? Neoconservatism and the Legacy of the New York Intellectuals, Birkbeck College, 24-25 May 2006

'A Dying Creed?: The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism', UCL/Birkbeck, 24 April 2006

'A Dying Creed?: The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism', UPTAP meetings, University of Leeds, 30-31 March 2006

Resources:

Eric Kaufmann's Political Demography Resource

Reading List of Relevant Articles

Links:

Link to Original UPTAP programme specification

Philip Longman's website

Back to Eric Kaufmann's Homepage