Eric Kaufmann
Eric is currently leading an ESRC project, Diversity and the White Working Class in England, with Dr. Gareth Harris (also of Birkbeck, University of London’s Politics department). The project involves a partnership with the think tank Demos, and its Politics of Demography project. The work uses quantitative data and focus groups to examine whether the white British ethnic majority, especially its working-class component, is responding to increasing diversity though a) ‘exit’, i.e. residentially withdrawing through white flight or avoidance; b) ‘voice’ – opposition to immigration and voting for anti-immigration parties; or c) ‘accommodation’ – increased intermarriage, toleration of change and residential mixing.
Eric’s recent books have focused on political demography – the politics of population change. He has a continuing interest in national identity and questions of dominant-group ethnic identity, as well as religious fundamentalism. His most recent trade press book, Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth, is pictured above. Based on a wealth of demographic research, Kaufmann shows that the more religious people are, regardless of income, faith tradition or education, the more children they have. Religious countries have faster population growth than secular ones which is why immigrants are typically much more religious than their secular host societies. The cumulative effect of immigration and religious fertility will be to reverse the secularisation process in the West. In particular, those who are the most extreme in their beliefs have the largest families and tend to lose the fewest members to nonreligion.
Within Judaism, the Ultra-Orthodox may achieve majority status over their liberal counterparts by mid-century. Evangelical and neo-traditional Christians will eventually dominate Christianity in the United States and Europe. Islamist Muslims have won the culture war in much of the Muslim world, even as the Arab Spring has reconfigured power in the region. Their success provides a glimpse of what awaits the Christian West and Israel.
Drawing on extensive demographic research, and considering questions of multiculturalism and terrorism, Kaufmann examines the implications of the decline in liberal secularism as religious conservatism rises – and what this means for the future of western modernity. A number of the most prominent recorded events for the book are featured below.
View talk at American Enterprise Institute, Washington, May 20, 2011
View talk at New America Foundation, Washington, May 18, 2011
View talk from Festival of Dangerous Ideas, Sydney Opera House, Oct 3, 2010
Hear the interview with John Cleary on Australian Broadcasting Corporation ‘Sunday Nights’on the book
See youtube video of Eric’s talk at the RSA on April 15
Upcoming
- ‘The Politics of Population Change,’ 21st Century Population Challenge Consultation, St. George’s House, Windsor Castle, 12-13 March 2014
Latest Articles, Appearances and News
- ‘Land, History or Modernization?: Explaining Ethnic Fractionalization’, Ethnic & Racial Studies, forthcoming March 2014 [uncut draft]
- Mention in ‘The Evangelical Unease over contraception,’ US Catholic, January 4
- TV interview on white flight in England in ‘Going Underground’ programme, Russia Today, 2 January 2014 (from 00:57) Youtube version
- ‘White Flight in England?: White attraction rather than repulsion seems to be the story,’ LSE British Politics and Policy blog, December 17, 2013
- Eric Kaufmann, ‘The White British Response to Ethnic Change,’ The First International Conference on Political Demography and Social Macro-Dynamics, Russian Presidential National Academy of Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, December 13-14
- Eric Kaufmann, review of Paul Collier, Exodus, and David Goodhart, The British Dream, Literary Review, Christmas Edition, December 2013
- Demos press release for ‘White Flight?’ research, 25 November
- Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, ‘White Flight from London?’, National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), London, 28 November (invitation only)
- Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, ‘ “White Flight” in London and the UK?’, Demos, London, 20 November (invitation only) slides
- Eric Kaufmann, ‘Contact, Threat or ‘White Flight’?: local ethnic change, UKIP and anti-immigration sentiment in Britain,’ University of Reading, Politics Department seminar, 19 November, 430 pm, room URS 2s14
- “Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth: the political demography of religious fundamentalism,” Dondena Center, Bocconconi University, Milan, Italy, 13 November
- Eric Kaufmann, ‘Dominant Ethnicity and Immigration in Britain,’ University of Berne, Switzerland, 6 November [slides]
- Coverage of our nonwhite PM finding on BBC Asian Network, 6 November [from 14:40]
- Eric Kaufmann [slides] on ‘The Fortunes of Right-Wing Parties’ at None of the Above event, Birkbeck College, U. London, 19 October
- My ‘Too Many People‘, in Literary Review, October edition [preprint version]
- ’34% of electorate uncomfortable with ethnic minority PM,’ YouGov News [our poll data here]
- ‘One in three Britons ‘uncomfortable’ with prospect of ethnic minority PM,’ Guardian, 3 October
- Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, ‘White flight’?: Opposition to Diversity and Mobility Decisions in Britain, 1991‐2012,’ at British Society for Population Studies, Swansea, 9-11 September 2013 [presentation]
- Eric Kaufmann, ’Why China is Content to Stay at Home: Ethnic Fractionalization and Interstate Conflict,’ American Political Science Association, Chicago, Aug 28 [paper]
- ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth’, at Greenbelt Festival, Cheltenham, August 26, 2013; Also spoke in ‘Battle of the Visions (defense of Social Science) and in GTV Treehouse on ’How to restore confidence (powerpoint).’ (video tbc)
- Mention of my work (with A. Goujon & V. Skirbekk) on US religious demography: ’3 Reasons American May Become More Religious,’ Aug, 22 Christian Post
- Appeared on BBC (TV) News at Ten re Belfast Twelfth and rioting in Ardoyne, 12 July clip
- Spoke at: ‘Shifting Values: Nationalism and Identity in the UK and Japan’ seminar, Daiwa Anglo-Japanese Foundation, 10 July (podcast)
- Mention of research in Jonathan Portes v David Goodhart, ‘An Exercise in Scapegoating,’ London Review of Books, 20 June
- Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, ‘Contact or ‘White Flight?’: Why Are Whites in Diverse English Wards More Tolerant of Immigration?,’ Cathie Marsh Centre, University of Manchester, 7 May 2013, 4pm
- Chatham House event (where Eric will introduce and speak) on White Nationalism and White Flight: Transatlantic Perspectives, (other speakers John Logan, Brown U. on white residential and school dynamics in the US, and Marcel Lubbers, U. Utrecht, Netherlands, on European Far Right, June 13, 6pm
- ‘Many Different Englands,’ Prospect, April 29, 2013
- Mention of book in Mary Eberstadt, ‘In the War Over Christianity, Orthodoxy is Winning,’ Time, April 29, 2013
- ‘Positive Contact or Selective ‘White Flight’? : Why Whites in Diverse British Neighbourhoods are More Tolerant of Immigration,’ University of Oxford, Department of Sociology, April 22, 2013
- Spoke at Immigration Studies Initiative, University of Texas at Austin, March 21, 2013 slides
- Talk at “Identity Politics: The New World versus New (and Old) Europe” conference, University of Texas, Austin, March 22, 2013 slides
- Chairing and speaking at Birkbeck-Demos Roundtable, ‘Diversity and the White Working Class,’ London, April 3, 2013
- Mention in Ed West, ‘Pope Francis is the first non-European pope since 741 AD: Christianity is becoming a non-European faith’, Telegraph, 15 March
- Book launch of my co-edited book (with Brad Wilcox), Whither the Child: Causes and Consequences of Low Fertility at London School of Economics, 11 March 2013 podcast
- Responded to Lord Carlile at Res Publica Briefing Event on Counter-radicalisation, Birkbeck College, 27 February
- ‘Responses to diversity among the white working class in England and Wales’, University of East Anglia, Norwich, School of Political, Social and International Studies, March 6, 1 pm
- “To understand the present troubles in Belfast, we need to go back to the dying days of the old ‘Orange State’”, LSE Politics and Policy blog, 1 Feb 2013
- Interviewed as part of CNN feature on segregation and Islamist patrols in London, 1 Feb 2013
- Mention in Nick Hellen, ‘Britons ‘self-segregate’ as white flight soars,’ Sunday Times, 27 January 2013
- Mention in Emma Reynolds, ‘Rise of ‘white flight’: British families are ’self-segregating’ as more Caucasians abandon urban areas for the countryside,’ 27 Jan 2013
- Interview in El Iberico on Catalan nationalism in comparative perspective (Spanish), 26 January 2013
- London and the English, Huffington Post (and Demos Blog), 15 January 2013
- Interview on Radio 5 Live on Belfast loyalist flag riots, from 2:23:20 onward (9/01/13)
- Mention in David Goodhart, ‘London’s “White Flight” Deserves Attention,’ Financial Times, December 26, 2012
- ‘London: an Island of Religion in a Secular Sea,’ Huffington Post (and Demos Blog), 21 December 2012
- White Flight from London?’, Huffington Post, (and Prospect Magazine Blog, Demos Blog, LSE Politics Blog), 12 December 2012
- ‘Why China is Content to Stay at Home: Internal Ethnic Diversity and International Power Projection,’ Department of War Studies, King’s College, University of London, December 6th, 6pm. [podcast & video here]
- ‘Why the Republicans Will Continue to Oppose Obama on Immigration,’ Huffington Post, November 13 (also reproduced on Extremis, 23 November)
- At London Metropolitan University, Department of Politics and International Relations, November 21st
- Web figures and description now live for my new co-edited book with W. Bradford Wilcox, Whither the Child: the Causes and Consequences of Low Fertility (Paradigm, 2012)
- Judge in Debating Matters secondary school debate, Wandsworth Round, Oct 8
- My new ESRC research project grant, ‘Exit, Voice or Accommodation?: white working-class responses to ethnic change in Britain,’ with Gareth Harris just announced, running for 18 months from October 2012
- Spoke at ‘Diversity and Freedom in Present-Day Europe: Challenges and Opportunities’ conference, West Sussex, UK, September 6-9
- New co-edited book, with Robert Schertzer and Eric Taylor Woods, Nationalism and Conflict Management (Routledge, 2012)
Multimedia
- Talk at Royal Holloway University of London, History Seminar, Nov. 7, 2011 podcast here
- Interview on Clay Naff’s radio show, ‘Science Odyssey: Demography Shows How Religion Drives Population Growth’, September 10
- May 20, 2011, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, 2:30 pm
- May 18, 2011, New America Foundation, Washington, DC, 12:15 pm
- May 16, 2011, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, DC, 3 pm overview clip Arab spring clip photos on flickr
- 26 December 2010, Andy Walton, Sunday Breakfast Show, Premier Christian Radio, 8:00 am.
- ‘The Future of Religion’, Studies, December
- 1 December, at Open Discussions, Abrar House, 45 Crawford Place, London W1H 4LP
- Live in IQ Squared Debate, ‘If You Want Peace, Forget Justice’, Sydney Opera House, Oct 2, 2010
- Philip Adams Late Night live, ABC radio, Wednesday 29 September, in Sydney, Australia
- Interview on Sunday Night Safran, Triple J radio, Sydney, Australia
- Hear the interview with John Cleary on Australian Broadcasting Corporation ‘Sunday Nights’on the book
- 15 April: Debate on the book with Dominic Lawson of The Sunday Times at RSA, London, 6 pm. Moderated by Laurie Taylor and co-sponsored by New Humanist magazine
- 12 April: BBC World Service ‘Politics UK’. Debate with Lord Robert Skidelsky and Mehdi Hasan, political editor, New Statesman, on immigration in the UK and Europe
- 7 April, 4-430 pm : Appearance on BBC Radio 4 ‘Thinking Allowed‘ with Tariq Ramadan and Rebecca Goldstein
- 1 April, 11-12 am: Today Show with Pat Kenny, RTE (Ireland) Radio 1. Hear interview podcast.
- Hear the interview with George Miller of Blackwell’s on the book
- 4 March 2010, 7pm Royal National Hotel, Bedford Way, London: Appearance at Jewish Book Week, on panel with Dominique Moisi and John Kampfner on panel on ‘Threats to our Democracy’. Details at: http://www.jewishbookweek.com/2010/democracy-at-risk.php [podcast of debate here]
- ’17 Oct, 2009: “Only an atheist can be a good Christian; only a Christian can be a good atheist”, Verso Book Launch Debate on Ernst Bloch’s Atheism in Christianity, Saturday 17th October 2009, 3pm – 5pm, Room B35, Birkbeck College London (podcasted event)
Reviews of the book
- New Humanist (cover story by Caspar Melville), ‘Battle of the Babies’, March/April issue. Chosen as an ‘article of note’ in Arts and Letters Daily, early April.
- 15 March 2010 – Daily Telegraph (Ed West) – ‘Atheism is doomed: the contraceptive Pill is secularism’s cyanide tablet’
- 21 March 2010 – Sunday Times (Dominic Lawson), ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth’
- 22-28 March – Big Issue Scotland (cover story), ‘God’s Comeback’
- 31 March – London Metro (Robert Murphy), ‘Shall The Religious Inherit The Earth?: Eric Kaufmann may have the answer’
- 4 April – Financial Times (John Lloyd), ‘Abraham’s Children on the March’
- April – Literary Review (Douglas Murray), ‘We’re All Doomed’
- 4 April – Theos (Nick Spencer) – ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth’
- 9 April – Independent (Ziauddin Sardar) – ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth’
- 17 April – Toronto Globe and Mail (Doug Saunders) – ‘Swamped by Religion’
- 18 April – Morning Star (Michael Boncza) – ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth’
- 2 May – Observer (Kenan Malik) – ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth’
- 5 May – Epiphenom (Tom Rees) – ‘Shall the Fundamentalists Inherit the Earth’
- 16 May – Sunday Star Times, New Zealand, (Mark Broatch) – ‘Revenge of the Cradle’
- 18 June – Catholic Herald (Ed West) – ‘The future belongs to the children of believers’
- 22 June – Taki’s Magazine (John Derbyshire) - ‘Religious Extremists Will Inherit the Earth’
- 25 June – Spiked Online (Tim Black) – ‘The barbarians are copulating at the gates’
- 2 October, Miriam Cosic, ‘Religious baby boom primed to send shock waves through secular world’, The Australian
- 21 October, Razib Khan, ‘The Wheel of History turns to the gods’, Discovery Magazine
- 22 December 2010 – Grace Davie, ‘Religion’s Built-in Baby Boom?’, Church Times
- April/May 2011 - review of book by Allan Carlson in The Family in America, Winter issue
- Professor: the Religious Population will inherit the earth, Hal Boyd, Deseret News, May 24, 2011
- Review of the book by Frank Ellis, Quarterly Review, Spring 2011
- ‘Book Review: Between Religion and Politics’, Muhammad Khan, Muslim News, May 27, 2011
- ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?– A Thought-Provoking Look into the Future of Faith’, by Emma Terama, Finnish Yearbook of Population Research XLVI, 2011, pp. 136–142
Interviews, Articles of Mine, and Commentary on the Book
- Wrong, Rogue and Booklog
- Kitman.tv, May 20, 2011
- Kitchendaily, May 19
- Superstition and Atheism blog, May 17, 2011
- Homeschoolingallabout.com, May 4
- God’sownparty, Dec 20
- ‘Survival of the Godliest: Does strong religious belief provide an evolutionary advantage?’, Philip Longman, Big Questions Online, 12 November
- ‘The West Should Stop Panicking’ (Aron Paul), The Australian, 24 September
- related: ‘The Death of the Fittest: Why are the healthiest and wealthiest populations failing to reproduce?’ (Philip Longman), 21 September
- ‘Why Religion Will Make a Comeback’ (David Quinn), Iona Institute, 15 June
- ‘The future of Right-wing politics – ‘Libertarian Islamophobes’ or inter-faith gay-bashers?’ (Ed West), Telegraph, 9 June
- ‘Why the 21st century will be religious’ (Ed West), Catholic Herald, 4 June
- ‘Credo: It takes faith to have a child, faith in mankind’s purpose’, (Rabbi Jonathan Sacks), Times, 21 May
- ‘Acts of God’, Standpoint(Daniel Johnson), May issue
- Irish Independent (David Quinn) – ‘David Quinn: It is the religious who shall inherit the earth‘, 30 April
- Times (Catherine Nixey), ‘I pity the Catholics who believed in their leaders’, 23 April
- Kenan Malik.com, ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth‘, 9 April
- ‘Europe’s Muslim Future‘, Eric Kaufmann, Prospect, April
- Mercator.net (interview), April
- Belief.net (Rod Dreher) – ‘The (very) Religious Shall Inherit the Earth‘, 2 April
- ‘Mormons: ‘We don’t want Bible bashers‘ (Alice Fishburn and Hattie Garlick), Sunday Times, 1 April
- ‘Rise of the Fundamentalists‘, Slugger O’ Toole, 22 March
- Friendly Atheist (interview), Hemant Mehta, 19 March
