Richard Dawkins and Christopher Hitchens have convinced many western intellectuals that secularism is the way forward. But most people don’t read their books before deciding whether to be religious. Instead, they inherit their faith from their parents, who often innoculate them against the elegant arguments of secularists. In the race for souls, demography counts for more than eloquence. And demographic reality is very much slanted against secularism: what no one has noticed is that far from declining, the religious are expanding their share of the population because secular birthrates have plunged below replacement.

Based on a wealth of demographic studies, Kaufmann shows that the more religious people are, regardless of income, faith tradition or education, the more children they have. Religious countries have faster population growth than secular ones which is why immigrants are typically much more religious than their secular host societies. The cumulative effect of immigration and religious fertility will be to reverse the secularisation process in the West. Not only will the religious eventually triumph over the non-religious, but it is those who are the most extreme in their beliefs who have the largest families.

Within Judaism, the Ultra-Orthodox may achieve majority status over their liberal counterparts by mid-century. Evangelical and neo-traditional Christians will eventually follow suit in the United States and Europe. Islamist Muslims have won the culture war in much of the Muslim world, and their success provides a glimpse of what awaits the Christian West and Israel.

Drawing on extensive demographic research, and considering questions of multiculturalism and terrorism, Kaufmann examines the implications of the decline in liberal secularism as religious conservatism rises – and what this means for the future of western modernity.

View talk at American Enterprise Institute, Washington, May 20, 2011

View talk at New America Foundation, Washington, May 18, 2011

View talk from Festival of Dangerous Ideas, Sydney Opera House, Oct 3, 2010

Hear the interview with John Cleary on Australian Broadcasting Corporation ‘Sunday Nights’on the book

See youtube video of Eric’s talk at the RSA on April 15

Upcoming

• Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, ‘Contact or ‘White Flight?’: Why Are Whites in Diverse English Wards More Tolerant of Immigration?,’ Cathie Marsh Centre, University of Manchester, 7 May 2013, 4pm
• Chatham House event (where Eric will introduce and speak) on White Nationalism and White Flight: Transatlantic Perspectives, (other speakers John Logan, Brown U. on white residential and school dynamics in the US, and Marcel Lubbers, U. Utrecht, Netherlands, on European Far Right, June 13, 6pm
• ‘Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth’, at Greenbelt Festival,  Cheltenham, August 25-6, 2013; website: www.greenbelt.org.uk; tickets: http://greenbelt.org.uk/boxoffice/
• Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris speaking on “White Flight or Counter-Urbanisation?: the Effect of Ideology and Neighbourhood Perceptions on White British Mobility Decisions, 1991-2011,” Royal Geographical Society (with IBG), London, Aug. 28, 2013 (tbc)
• Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris speaking at British Society for Population Studies, Swansea, 9-11 September 2013

Latest Articles, Appearances and News

• ‘Many Different Englands,’ Prospect, April 29, 2013
• Mention of book in Mary Eberstadt, ‘In the War Over Christianity, Orthodoxy is Winning,’ Time, April 29, 2013
• ‘Positive Contact or Selective ‘White Flight’? : Why Whites in Diverse British Neighbourhoods are More Tolerant of Immigration,’ University of Oxford, Department of Sociology, April 22, 2013
• Spoke at Immigration Studies Initiative, University of Texas at Austin, March 21, 2013 slides
• Talk at “Identity Politics: The New World versus New (and Old) Europe” conference, University of Texas, Austin, March 22, 2013 slides
• Chairing and speaking at Birkbeck-Demos Roundtable, ‘Diversity and the White Working Class,’ London, April 3, 2013
• Mention in Ed West, ‘Pope Francis is the first non-European pope since 741 AD: Christianity is becoming a non-European faith’, Telegraph, 15 March
• Book launch of my co-edited book (with Brad Wilcox), Whither the Child: Causes and Consequences of Low Fertility at London School of Economics, 11 March 2013 podcast
• Responded to Lord Carlile at Res Publica Briefing Event on Counter-radicalisation, Birkbeck College, 27 February
• ‘Responses to diversity among the white working class  in England and Wales’, University of East Anglia, Norwich, School of Political, Social and International Studies,  March 6, 1 pm
• “To understand the present troubles in Belfast, we need to go back to the dying days of the old ‘Orange State’”, LSE Politics and Policy blog, 1 Feb 2013
• Interviewed as part of CNN feature on segregation and Islamist patrols in London, 1 Feb 2013
• Mention in Nick Hellen, ‘Britons ‘self-segregate’ as white flight soars,’ Sunday Times, 27 January 2013
• Mention in Emma Reynolds, ‘Rise of ‘white flight’: British families are ’self-segregating’ as more Caucasians abandon urban areas for the countryside,’ 27 Jan 2013
• Interview in El Iberico on Catalan nationalism in comparative perspective (Spanish), 26 January 2013
• London and the English, Huffington Post (and Demos Blog), 15 January 2013
• Interview on Radio 5 Live on Belfast loyalist flag riots, from 2:23:20 onward (9/01/13)
• Mention in David Goodhart, ‘London’s “White Flight” Deserves Attention,’ Financial Times, December 26, 2012
• ‘London: an Island of Religion in a Secular Sea,’ Huffington Post (and Demos Blog), 21 December 2012
• White Flight from London?’, Huffington Post, (and Prospect Magazine Blog, Demos Blog, LSE Politics Blog), 12 December 2012
• ‘Why China is Content to Stay at Home: Internal Ethnic Diversity and International Power Projection,’ Department of War Studies, King’s College, University of London, December 6th, 6pm. [podcast & video here]
• ‘Why the Republicans Will Continue to Oppose Obama on Immigration,’ Huffington Post, November 13 (also reproduced on Extremis, 23 November)
• At London Metropolitan University, Department of Politics and International Relations, November 21st
• Web figures and description now live for my new co-edited book with W. Bradford Wilcox, Whither the Child: the Causes and Consequences of Low Fertility (Paradigm, 2012)
• Judge in Debating Matters secondary school debate, Wandsworth Round, Oct 8
• My new ESRC research project grant, ‘Exit, Voice or Accommodation?: white working-class responses to ethnic change in Britain,’ with Gareth Harris just announced, running for 18 months from October 2012
• Spoke at ‘Diversity and Freedom in Present-Day Europe: Challenges and Opportunities’ conference, West Sussex, UK, September 6-9
• New co-edited book, with Robert Schertzer and Eric Taylor Woods, Nationalism and Conflict Management (Routledge, 2012)

Reviews of the book